Electoral College Insanity: Florida Edition
Trump is significantly outpeforming his 2020 results in New York and Florida. It doesn’t matter.
Political Polling in the Trump Era
The professionals are striving to keep up with changing voter habits.
Will Trump Leaners Come Home to Biden?
The weirdness of this year’s polling gives the President’s team hope.
Age Inversion in American Politics?
Suddenly, old voters are aligning Democrat and young ones Republican.
Another Example of Our Flawed Democracy
It would be nice if the legislature represented the voters and whatnot.
The Polls Are Essentially Meaningless But They’re Here to Stay
They could be overstating support for Democrats. Or understating it. Or be more or less right.
Biden’s Record Gender Gap
If the Democrats win back the White House in November, it’ll be no thanks to men.
Trump’s Electoral College Advantage Growing
He could lose the popular vote by an even larger margin in 2020—and still coast to re-election.
More on the Pathologies of the EC
It’s the battleground states that are the issue, not small states v. large states.
Polling Shows Alabama Senate Race May Be Slipping Away From Roy Moore
Could the tide be turning in the Alabama Senate race against Roy Moore? At least some polling indicates the answer could be yes.
Hillary Clinton Picks Tim Kaine As Her Running Mate
As expected, Hillary Clinton went with the ‘safe’ choice, and has selected Virginia Senator Tim Kaine as her running mate.
Trump Sweeps Mid-Atlantic Primaries, Putting Himself One Step Closer To Victory
Another round of victories puts Donald Trump another step closer to the Republican nomination.
If Only A Contested Convention Can Stop Trump, It’s A Plan That’s Unlikely To Succeed
It seems increasingly apparent that the only way to stop Donald Trump now is by trying to force a contested convention. It also seems clear that such a plan probably wouldn’t succeed.
Hillary Clinton Scores Decisive Super Tuesday Wins, Moves One Step Closer To Nomination
As expected, Hillary Clinton won big last night while Bernie Sanders largely floundered, thus going further toward making Clinton’s victory inevitable.
What Are We Supposed To Think About These New Online Polls?
The 2016 election cycle is seeing “scientific” online polling become more prominent, but it’s unclear just how reliable it is.
Republican Primary Rules Favor Centrists
Why Republicans nominate moderates for president and not other offices.
Has Marco Rubio’s Breakout Moment Arrived?
Marco Rubio’s performance in this week’s debate is once again leading to speculation about whether is about to have a breakout moment.
Marco Rubio, The Next GOP Rising Star?
Quietly, Florida Senator Marco Rubio has been moving close to the front f the race for the Republican Presidential nomination.
Trump Continues To Lead The GOP Field, But Is His Support Overstated?
Donald Trump’s support in the polls appears to become coming largely from people who don’t typically vote in primary elections.
Chris Christie Enters The Race For President A Diminished Candidate With A Tough Road Ahead
Chris Christie is in the race for the Republican nomination, but it’s tough to see how he has a plausible path to relevance.
Mike Huckabee Enters Presidential Race, But He’s Weaker Than He Was In 2008
Mike Huckabee’s back, but the 2008 magic is gone.
Marco Rubio Enters The Race For President
Marco Rubio is the first Republican in the race who actually has a plausible chance to win the nomination, but it’s not going to be easy.
In The Wake Of Midterm Losses, Some On The Left Say Democrats Should Write Off The South
Some on the left are suggesting Democrats should write off the South for the foreseeable future, but that would be as foolish as Republicans assuming that their dominance in the region will last as long as Democratic dominance did in the century after the Civil War.
There’s Little Evidence That Voter ID Laws Impacted The 2014 Elections
Based on the available evidence, there’s very little evidence that Voter ID laws had a significant impact on the midterm elections.
Which Party Is Benefiting From Early Voting?
Early numbers seem to suggest that it depends on which state you’re looking at.
Voters Still Not Caring Very Much About The Midterms, And That’s No Surprise
Polls continue to show that most Americans are largely tuning the midterms out.
Republicans Have Little Incentive To Move Forward On Immigration Reform
Despite conventional wisdom, there remains little incentive for the GOP to change its position on immigration reform.
Time For A GOP/Tea Party Divorce? No, Time To Re-Open The ‘Big Tent’
Much like the Tea Party, David Frum wants to make the GOP tent smaller.
More Evidence Of The Political Risk To The GOP In A Shutdown
With just hours to go, the Republicans on Capitol Hill seem prepared to take a big political risk.
Romney In OH And PA On Election Day: Sign Of Confidence, Or Desperation?
The Romney campaign doesn’t seem too confident of its path to victory.
Romney Running Out Of Time In Ohio And Elsewhere
Mitt Romney has ground to make up if he’s going to catch the President and there’s not much time left to do it.
Obama Comes Back Strong But Debate’s Impact On Race Is Unclear
Last night’s debate was rough and tumble, but it’s unlikely to change the state of the race.
Debunking The Poll Denialists
The arguments of the people claiming that every single poll showing Mitt Romney is unfairly biased do not stand up to scrutiny.
The Political Impact Of The Supreme Court’s Health Care Ruling
Who benefits from the Supreme Court’s ObamaCare ruling?
